In the past few weeks, the global marketplace has been met with some much welcomed positive news. However, on the back of a massive slide in commodities prices, aluminum companies are still struggling with record low prices and seemingly nonexistent demand.
Aluminum’s fundamentals remain dire, despite the upswing in Chinese Imports. Imports in the country are rising due to an arbitrage opportunity as Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum is selling at a premium of $400-$500 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
Aluminum producer’s cutbacks have done little to stabilize the metal’s free fall. In London, the price of aluminum fell to $1,321 per tonne from $1,345. In New York, it was selling for 59 cents per pound. Six months ago, the metal’s going rate was $1.50 per pound.
Aluminium for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell to a low of $1,279 a tonne – the lowest level since November, 2001. Record high stocks were responsible for the overwhelming downward pressure. Aluminium LME warehouse inventories leapt by 13,125 tonnes to stand at 3.17 million tonnes, their highest ever.
Aluminum prices are near five-year lows as orders drop from automakers, builders and appliance manufacturers. The global recession, collapsing consumer and corporate confidence and plunging demand for industrial metals have combined to drop the aluminum prices on the LME to their lowest monthly rate since April 2003.
Aluminum industry executives sent a warning to other market leaders that unless large aluminum producers make deeper output cuts, the entire industry will likely take many years to recover from the current slump. Just 10% of world aluminum output is slated to be taken offline, and unless this number is pushed higher by more output cuts long-lasting damage to the sector is possible.
The price of aluminum has slumped some 50 percent since peaking at $3,380 per tonne last July as the global economic downturn has hit demand for the metal. To kick off 2009, the aluminum market received some positive news as the metal climbed to a three-week high in Shanghai trading.
World aluminum prices recorded a marginal gain on Monday on the back of news that the incoming US administration will be unveiling a major stimulus package. US President-Elect Barrack Obama announced plans for the biggest infrastructure investment since the creation of an interstate highway in the 1950’s.
If there was anyone who had reason to celebrate the failed BHP takeover of Rio Tinto, it would be China, and more specifically Chinese smelters. Last February, Aluminum Corp. of China together with Alcoa, paid $14.1billion for a 12% stake in Rio-Tinto’s London listed shares. Conspiracy theorists said the move was engineered by Beijing.
At aluminum’s current price around 90% of the world’s smelting capacity is operating at a loss, and this is forcing producers to revise production programs to cope with aluminum’s current price point.
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