Aluminum’s fundamentals remain dire, despite the upswing in Chinese Imports. Imports in the country are rising due to an arbitrage opportunity as Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum is selling at a premium of $400-$500 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
Aluminum industry executives sent a warning to other market leaders that unless large aluminum producers make deeper output cuts, the entire industry will likely take many years to recover from the current slump. Just 10% of world aluminum output is slated to be taken offline, and unless this number is pushed higher by more output cuts long-lasting damage to the sector is possible.
The price of aluminum has slumped some 50 percent since peaking at $3,380 per tonne last July as the global economic downturn has hit demand for the metal. To kick off 2009, the aluminum market received some positive news as the metal climbed to a three-week high in Shanghai trading.
World aluminum prices recorded a marginal gain on Monday on the back of news that the incoming US administration will be unveiling a major stimulus package. US President-Elect Barrack Obama announced plans for the biggest infrastructure investment since the creation of an interstate highway in the 1950’s.
If there was anyone who had reason to celebrate the failed BHP takeover of Rio Tinto, it would be China, and more specifically Chinese smelters. Last February, Aluminum Corp. of China together with Alcoa, paid $14.1billion for a 12% stake in Rio-Tinto’s London listed shares. Conspiracy theorists said the move was engineered by Beijing.
At aluminum’s current price around 90% of the world’s smelting capacity is operating at a loss, and this is forcing producers to revise production programs to cope with aluminum’s current price point.
The precipitous drop in commodity prices is putting companies under pressure, particularly feeling the squeeze are oil and metal mining companies. To be optimistic we must note that even though the current conditions are dire, the seeds are being sowed for another big rally in the metals.
On October 14/08, in Cupertino, California, Apple executives unveiled their redesigned line of MacBook Pro laptops, made from a solid piece of aluminum. These new laptops are more lightweight, thinner, and relatively inexpensive. Retail prices for the MacBook Pros begin at $1299 USD.
The preparations for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, China, have impacted commodity spot prices worldwide: aluminum consumption in China is at near-record heights, and continues to surge.
Get our independent commentary on aluminum trends and companies delivered to your inbox.
